The convergence of a number of significant trends is leading to a tipping point in the economic use of simulation across a wide range of complex domains. These trends include:
- advances in programming technology, especially structured programming, object oriented programming and evolutionary computing (in effect, the “growing” of algorithms);
- cost effective massively parallel supercomputer architectures enabling the most complex models to become visually meaningful on a range of thin client display devices and
- the integration of previously independent modeling formalisms such as discrete event modeling, system dynamics, agent based modeling, dynamic systems and artificial life, resulting in far more realistic hybrid simulation models.
The integration of large geospatial models and real-time data feeds running on advanced parallel computer architectures will allow previously impossible combinations of real life with virtual world models speeding training, scenario planning and providing organizations with the improved foresight necessary to lead decision makers to their desired future rather than to unintended consequences and their feared future.
The advanced visualization tools will enable the most complex systems and sets of algorithms to be presented cost effectively to large groups of researchers or decision makers in a way that will improve understanding, lead to better team learning and break free of the difficulties of grasping holistic system effects by looking only at pages of numbers and simple graphs. The simulation of the near future will be more like an immersive video game – a comfortable environment for the current generation of engineers and managers – than a long night in the research section of the library.
These new simulacrums will provide for analysis across time: running models from past data to future possible scenarios; across space: using advanced mapping and stochastic image technologies into which a powerful set of metadata can be embedded; and will take advantage of evolutionary computing technologies (artificial life) to quickly and automatically evaluate the most promising combinations and dramatically improve pattern recognition capabilities. They will utilize dynamic 3-D graphics and virtual world effects to enhance understanding and enable wisdom to emerge from knowledge gained through the intelligent analysis of mountains of data.
