Why 2006?

I'm getting hammered by people asking me:

What makes you so sure that 2006 will be the year that simulation science tips?

Here's my answer so that people can stop asking me the same question over and over again!!

Short Answer
I've met and interviewed dozens of men and women in the simulation science space from all over the world over the past five years. After all of these meetings, I've used the insights to update my model of the simulation space.

The model tells me that 2006 is the year that this stuff will tip.

For the men and women who doubt the power of simulations, let me pull a quote from Lawrence M. Fisher's recent biographical sketch about Dr. Jay Forrester, the founder of system dynamics.

[Professor Forrester's consulting] assignments often frustrated him.

Executives would listen politely to his presentation, and go on with the same problematic practices. Even at Digital Equipment, managed by his former students, he found system dynamics a tough sell.

'I was never successful in getting the board to believe the models would work,' he says. 'The last time I tried, one of them said, 'We agree that we've been successful following your advice, but it's not because of your modeling. It's just because you're a better manager than we are.'

As Professor Forrester says, 'That excused them from having to pay attention to the source of my insights.'

Still struggling to believe me?

Perhaps you will listen to Jim Sinur from Gartner, the world's leading provider of research and analysis about the global information technology industry. He wrote the following to me on 2 November 2005.

The trend is there based on a survey we did. In 2000, only about 5% of our clients used simulation. In 2004, we did survey that said over 25% were using simulation. Now that some form of simulation/optimization is in nearly every BPA and BPM tool, we expect that the 2006-2007 would likely be the tipping point for most clients (over 50%) using simulation in some form. Is it 2006 (p.6)? 2006-2007 (p.7)?

Business (and life itself) is incredibly complex. Mere mortals like myself must rely on simulations to understand this wonderfully complex and counterintuitive world.

And no, I won't show you the model. It's confidential!

If you want to take the first steps in learning to build simulations, you should purchase an outstanding book on the subject, "The Critical Path", by Dr Kim Warren.

Dr. Warren is a groundbreaking expert in this field, and has been an inspiration and mentor to me as I've embarked on this new business venture.

It's a very short book (you can read it on a trans-Atlantic flight) and it's written to appeal to non-technical managers and executives.

Finally, humans can profoundly deepen their understanding of the world they live in . . . thanks to computers and only with the help of computers. And, that’s an even harder sell. Don't agree? Pop down to your local antique store, buy an abacus or, better yet, grab some yarrow stalks so that you can consult the I Ching and get back to work!

2006 - The Tipping Point for Simulation Science
Selling Simulation Science
What is Simulation Science?

Warmly,
Justin Lyon



LONG ANSWER FOR THE TIME RICH!
In 2001, when I took 'System Dynamics Foundation: Managing Complexity' with Dr. Jim Hines through MIT's Center for Advanced Education Services, I got a copy of Vensim® PLE to use in the course. I think Dr. Hines is now collaborating with Worchester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) to offer this course at a distance. It's worth the money.

Today, I would use mystrategy® , but I did not know about that software back in 2001.

Since 2001, I've been working on a model to provide myself with foresight into a probable 'tipping point' for simulation science.

I would travel and meet people, take copious notes and then go update my model.

While trekking in Honduras, I kept tweaking and playing with the model (in the hotel of course, it's hard to lug a computer through the jungle!). Bird watching is amazing and, if you get a chance, raft or kayak the Rio Congreal. It has rapids ranging in difficulty from class II to class V and offers something for everyone from the first time rafter to experienced kayak enthusiasts. El Pital to Las Mangas is the best part. Be careful of "Schorshi's Nail,' a nasty part of the river. Udo, one of the best guides down there, and I were rafting along with Schorshi Schauf who tore off his pinky fingernail during the filming of an extreme kayaking expedition. The hole used to be called 'Fools Rush In,' but Udo renamed it in honor of Schorshi's loss! A highly recommended adventure!

After diving the Andaman Sea around Koh Phi Phi, I would sit on the beach and think about the model. The leopard sharks are beautiful and it's so, so tempting to pet them, but don't. It's bad diving form!

In South Africa, while riding horses on safari at Wait a Little, I would think about the model. If you are a rider, take time to visit Wait a Little. It's fun and exhilarating to see elephant and rhino from horseback. If the elephant charges, stand your ground so that you don't teach them that they can mess with humans on horses. If you're lucky, Phillip will let you shoot his pricey elephant gun. It will knock you on your ass if you're not careful. Don't say I didn't warn you! Do me a favor; if you go please tell Philip and Gerti that Justin Lyon sent you. I rode Tolly Rocket and Guinness; both are fun horses. They may have retired or got eaten by lions since they are no longer featured on the web site. Tolly was a bit stubborn, but I worked hard with her to get her to not pull. I'm not that good a rider, so take whatever advice Philip and Gerti give you!

When trekking across Turkey at the start of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, I scribbled dozens of pages of notes and updated the model back in the states. A Wabash College class studying ancient Christian culture went to Turkey on Saturday, 8 March 2003. At the time, I was director of new media at Wabash College, and Todd Vogel was a student at Wabash and incredible photographer. We were following the class up and down the western coast of Turkey and sent back journal entries and photographs.

It was while riding Bingo in Missouri at Meramec Farms that I had a stunning insight that transformed my model. If you go, give Carol a big hug for me.

I've met and interviewed dozens of men and women in the simulation science space from all over the world over the past five years. After my meetings, I update my model.

The model tells me that 2006 is the year that this stuff will tip.

For the men and women who doubt the power of simulations, let me pull a quote from Lawrence M. Fisher's recent biographical sketch about Dr. Jay Forrester, the founder of system dynamics.

[Professor Forrester's consulting] assignments often frustrated him.

Executives would listen politely to his presentation, and go on with the same problematic practices. Even at Digital Equipment, managed by his former students, he found system dynamics a tough sell.

'I was never successful in getting the board to believe the models would work,' he says. 'The last time I tried, one of them said, 'We agree that we've been successful following your advice, but it's not because of your modeling. It's just because you're a better manager than we are.'

As Professor Forrester says, 'That excused them from having to pay attention to the source of my insights.'

Still struggling to believe me?

Perhaps you will listen to Jim Sinur from Gartner, the world's leading provider of research and analysis about the global information technology industry. He wrote the following to me on 2 November 2005.

The trend is there based on a survey we did. In 2000, only about 5% of our clients used simulation. In 2004, we did survey that said over 25% were using simulation. Now that some form of simulation/optimization is in nearly every BPA and BPM tool, we expect that the 2006-2007 would likely be the tipping point for most clients (over 50%) using simulation in some form. Is it 2006 (p.6)? 2006-2007 (p.7)?

Business (and life itself) is incredibly complex. Mere mortals like myself must rely on simulations to understand this wonderfully complex and counterintuitive world.

And no, I won't show you the model. It's confidential!

2006 - The Tipping Point for Simulation Science
Selling Simulation Science
What is Simulation Science?

© 2005 Justin Lyon. All Rights Reserved.
Reproduction permitted with reference to author: Justin Lyon.