Criminals, Drugs and Simulations

Here are two interesting papers that touch on the applicability of simulation science (including agent based modelling and system dynamics) to social science modelling.

The first paper challenges the common belief held by the medical community that illegal drug use is a disease. Instead, the authors argue that illegal drug use is better understood thru a 'marketing' lens. That is, results of the analysis suggest the drug epidemics can be better understood as diffusion of a commodity rather than as infection by a disease, the view of the medically dominated substance abuse field. This has important policy implications.

The second paper describes the combination of System Dynamics modelling (Aggregated "super agents") and Agent-Based Modelling. The result of this work was the development of a hybrid model that combines a simple system dynamics approach with an agent-based model. The distinctive approach used in this work integrated modeling with practical ways of enabling people to engage in strategic policymaking, while taking into account the complexities of the criminal justice system. The agent-based framework developed to meet these needs models the criminal justice system, provides the ability to assess policy across the system, and allows sharing of model output to improve cooperative efforts among departments.

Agar, M., Guerin, S., Holmes, R., Kunkle, D., (2004). Epidemiology or Marketing? The Paradigm-Busting Use of Complexity and Ethnography. In: Proceedings of Agent 2004: Challenges in Social Simulation

Boyle, S., Guerin, S., Pratt, J., and Kunkle, D.
(2003). Application of agent-based simulation to policy appraisal in the criminal justice system in England and Wales. In: Proceedings of Agent 2003: Challenges in Social Simulation

Both are available here:
http://www.redfish.com/research.htm